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Prediction for CME (2022-01-14T13:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-14T13:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18827/-1
CME Note: Visible in SW of STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3, moving quickly through the FOV. Associated with a large eruption from AR 12925 (S33W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-14T12:54Z. UPDATE: There appears to be a weak component rotation of two components of magnetic field at around 2022-01-17T14:00Z, preceded by drop in density/temperature. However, according to Lan, there is no sign of a shock and there appears to be no ICME arrival on 2022-01-17.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-17T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Excerpt from SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2022 Jan 15 1252 UTC

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20115
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Jan 2022, 1250UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Jan 2022 until 17 Jan 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 017 
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 004 
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 001

...

An Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was detected by LASCO-C2/SOHO and CORR2/STEREO-A at 14 Jan 13:40 UT. It has an estimated speed of 1100 km/s and is expected to arrive on Earth late at 17 Jan.

...

###

Lead Time: 52.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-01-15T12:52Z

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